Traffic Assessment at Porters Neck Road

The Porters Neck Homeowners Association (PNHOA) underwrote the hiring of a traffic consultant to review the work and recommendations of the developers' traffic engineer. Our consultant advised New Hanover County that all big-box retailers generate greatest traffic volume at mid-day on Saturday, and that a Saturday traffic study should therefore be required as part of the developers' proposal to the county. The County requested this further study, which was conducted on Saturday, August 25th by Martin Alexiou Bryson (MAB), the developers' traffic consultant.

Following is our traffic engineer's review of the several traffic studies conducted by the Lowe's project developers. This posting is made with the approval of the PNHOA. We have highlighted the conclusion because of the significance of this finding to the long-term development of the Lowe's project and related longer-term development.

MEMORANDUM

TO: Porters Neck HOA
FROM: Lawrence H. Green, P.E.
SUBJECT: Traffic Assessment of US 17 (Market Street) at Porters Neck Road
DATE: September 1, 2007

The purpose of this memorandum is to summarize the findings of traffic analyses that have been conducted at the US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection over the past 15 months as part of the proposed rezoning of a portion of the Alliance Commercial Property in Wilmington, North Carolina. Listed below is a chronological listing of the findings of various traffic reports:

- A May 2006 traffic report was prepared by Martin Alexiou Bryson (MAB) for the subject property. The original traffic report was based upon a 134,000 square foot Home Improvement Store, a 120,000 square foot Free Standing Discount Store, and 181,000 square feet of Retail Development.

- The May 2006 traffic report was conducted prior to the opening of I-140 Wilmington Bypass. In order to account for the Wilmington Bypass on traffic operations along US 17, a 30% reduction in through traffic along US 17 was assumed in the traffic report.

- Based upon the assumed site development program and the 30% reduction in through traffic on US 17, the traffic report concluded that the entire development program could be accommodated based upon the results of AM and PM weekday peak hour analyses.

- A new traffic count was conducted at the US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection on Tuesday, June 12, 2007 to determine if traffic volumes had actually decreased by 30% along US 17 as projected in the traffic report after the opening of the Wilmington Bypass. The results of the new traffic count revealed that traffic had increased by 6% during the weekday AM peak hour and increased by 7% during the weekday PM peak hour.

- Since Saturday peak hour trip rates are higher than both the AM and PM peak hour trip rates for the proposed development, a new traffic count was conducted on Saturday, August 18, 2007 at the US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection. The results of the new traffic count revealed that traffic activity on a Saturday was heavier than the weekday AM peak hour, but slightly less than the weekday PM hour.

- Based upon the finding that traffic activity had not reduced along US 17 but actually increased since the opening of the Wilmington Bypass, a new traffic analysis was prepared for the proposed development at the US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection utilizing the June 2007 weekday peak period traffic volumes and the August 2007 Saturday peak period traffic volumes. However, rather than conducting an analysis with the same development program as the May 2006 traffic impact study, a new analysis was prepared by MAB dated August 21, 2007 only assuming a 170,000 square foot Home Improvement Store. The Free Standing Discount Store and Retail Development were not included in the new analysis.

- The results of the new analysis revealed that US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection will operate at a Level of Service (LOS) “C” during the weekday AM peak hour, a LOS “D” during the weekday PM peak hour, and a LOS “D” during the Saturday mid-day peak hour. The level of service findings were based upon the assumption that the US 17 at Porters Neck Road intersection would be improved to provide exclusive double left turn lanes and an exclusive right turn lane on all approaches. In addition, a single exclusive through lane was recommended along eastbound and westbound Porters Neck Road.

- Since LOS “D” is the typical lowest acceptable grade for intersection operations, the traffic report recommended that a new connection to US 17 be provided for any new development beyond the proposed Lowe’s Home Improvement Store. This new finding in the August 21, 2007 memorandum is significant since the earlier May 2006 traffic report concluded that the entire development that included the Free Standing Discount Store and Retail Development could be supported by one access point at Porters Neck Road. Thus, the findings of the May 2006 traffic report are no longer valid.

In conclusion, the recent traffic studies conducted along US 17 at Porters Neck Road have revealed that the Wilmington Bypass has not diverted traffic as expected along US 17 in the vicinity of Porters Neck Road. Rather than experiencing a 30% drop in through traffic as projected by the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT), peak period traffic has actually increased between 6 and 7 percent. Due to this fact, the August 21, 2007 traffic report conducted for the Alliance Commercial Property by MAB have concluded that a single access point to US 17 is only sufficient to support the Lowe’s Home Improvement Store. The future Free Standing Discount Store and/or Retail Development will require an additional access to/from US 17 (unless the percentage of traffic diverted to the Wilmington Bypass significantly increases).